September Sees Canada Gain 64,000 Jobs, Driven by Seasonal Uptick in Education Employment

08 Oct, 2023

September Sees Canada Gain 64,000 Jobs, Driven by Seasonal Uptick in Education Employment

In September, Canada's economy experienced a net increase of 64,000 new workers. This growth was driven by a surge in hiring in Quebec and British Columbia, which managed to offset the loss of 38,000 jobs in Alberta. Despite the addition of these new jobs, the country's jobless rate remained steady at 5.5 percent, as more individuals entered the workforce.

During the month, Canada's adult population increased by over 82,000 people, with nearly 72,000 of them actively seeking employment. The job gains were higher than economists had anticipated, with 48,000 of them being part-time positions. Economist Tu Nguyen from RSM Canada suggested that the increase in part-time work might be related to immigration trends, as newcomers may initially find it easier to secure part-time employment.

Nguyen noted that to maintain a stable unemployment rate, approximately 50,000 additional jobs per month are needed due to immigration-driven population growth. September's numbers seem to be on track to meet this requirement, signaling a more balanced job market where employers can find talent as needed.

The majority of the job gains were concentrated in the education sector, which added 66,000 jobs as schools resumed their sessions. However, economist Royce Mendes from Desjardins cautioned against interpreting this as a significant hiring spree, as it offset an unusual decline of 44,000 education workers in August, which was due to seasonal adjustment processes.

Compared to the end of the previous school year in May, the education sector currently employs 26,000 more workers. Although the two-month total of over 100,000 new workers is impressive, Mendes highlighted that the total number of hours worked remained flat in September, tempering the headline figure.

The robust job numbers increased the likelihood of another interest rate hike at the end of the month, as financial markets were now pricing in nearly a 50/50 chance, a notable increase from the previous week's odds of less than one in three.

While there were some weaknesses beneath the strong job gain headline, it doesn't necessarily indicate a slumping job market. Hourly wages continued to rise, reaching $34.01 per hour for salaried workers, marking a five percent increase since the previous year.

Despite the potential transient nature of the surge in educational workers, several sectors of the economy consistently exhibited strong demand for employees. The transportation and warehousing sector, for instance, added 18,000 workers during the month and almost 80,000 over the past year. However, finding enough workers to meet this demand has become a challenge, especially in the truck driving industry, which is currently experiencing a shortage of approximately 20,000 jobs.

Canada Cartage, one of the country's oldest and largest trucking firms, is grappling with this issue. According to Dave Zavitz, the company's chief administrative officer, the shortage is primarily due to the retirement of older workers, and recruiting young replacements is proving difficult. Nick Blackbird, a veteran trucker and instructor, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the chronic shortage of skilled truckers in the industry.