France outlines plans for Rafale exports to Saudi Arabia and India, yet unresolved fighter jet tensions with Germany remain

04 Nov, 2023

France outlines plans for Rafale exports to Saudi Arabia and India, yet unresolved fighter jet tensions with Germany remain

France has taken significant steps toward securing new Rafale fighter jet orders by initiating discussions with India and Saudi Arabia, which could potentially lead to Dassault manufacturing an additional 80 aircraft. Despite the promise of these opportunities, fresh uncertainties surrounding the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) and the SCAF next-generation fighter project, involving France, Germany, and Spain, threaten to cast a shadow over these developments.

Recent reports from The Times suggested that Germany might consider withdrawing from the FCAS project to join the rival Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), led by Italy, Japan, and the UK. While the German Ministry of Defense denied these claims, tensions in industrial relations between Berlin and Paris persist.

Previous disagreements between Airbus and Dassault over a Phase 1B demonstrator contract, crucial for developing the initial FCAS next-generation fighter version, were eventually resolved in December 2022. Challenges related to flight control systems were a significant point of contention, leading to an uneasy partnership.

Some analysts believe that Dassault's approach to workshare and intellectual property rights continues to strain the relationship. Christian Molling, research director at the German Council on Foreign Relations, noted that Dassault is perceived as an obstacle in certain workshare agreements with Airbus.

Paul Lever, a former British ambassador to Germany, speculates that the recent story about Germany considering an FCAS exit might be intended to pressure France into concessions regarding work and design shares. Officially, Berlin maintains its commitment to the FCAS project, with the German Ministry of Defense stating that media reports suggesting Germany's withdrawal are false.

While the FCAS project's status remains uncertain, political dynamics could impact France's Rafale deal with Saudi Arabia. Saudi requirements for additional fourth-generation fighters present a challenge for France, as Germany is part of the Eurofighter consortium. Currently, Germany blocks the sale of Eurofighters to Saudi Arabia due to the conflict with Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. However, the UK is pushing for Germany to reconsider, and if an agreement is reached, it could jeopardize France's Rafale prospects.

Sebastien Lecornu, France's defense minister, has confirmed ongoing discussions to secure the sale to Saudi Arabia, but the outcome remains uncertain.

On a more positive note, France is moving ahead with an order from the Indian Navy for 26 Rafale naval-configured jets. The French DGA defense procurement agency recently received an official request for proposal from India's defense ministry, launching contract negotiations. This deal follows the successful delivery of 36 Rafale aircraft to India last year, as initially announced by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during France's Bastille Day celebrations in July.