Market Anticipates Petrobras' Decreased Revenue and Earnings Outlook

10 May, 2024

Market Anticipates Petrobras' Decreased Revenue and Earnings Outlook

Analysts foresee Petrobras grappling with the repercussions of dwindling diesel prices and a slump in the sale of petroleum byproducts, potentially impacting its financial performance. Expectations indicate a downturn in net earnings for the first quarter compared to the previous year. Forecasts compiled by Valor suggest a 21.78% decrease, with anticipated earnings of $5.74 billion. Similarly, revenue projections average at $24.62 billion, down by 8.02% from the same period in 2023. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are expected to decline by 3.82% to $13.42 billion.

Projections from various financial institutions vary, with estimates ranging from $4.9 billion to $6 billion for net earnings, $23 billion to $26.9 billion for net revenue, and $12.9 billion to $14.4 billion for EBITDA. The depreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar, coupled with reduced diesel prices and diminished sales volume, is anticipated to adversely affect net earnings.

Despite challenges, analysts from BTG Pactual anticipate a robust performance, citing favorable refining margins and stable diesel margins. Santander analysts express optimism about potential dividends but stress the importance of factors like domestic fuel price hikes and increased oil production for a more positive outlook on Petrobras shares. While oil exports dipped in the first quarter due to heightened domestic refinery usage, production levels remain in line with annual goals, signaling potential growth in the coming months.

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